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Chicago Bears favored by six as Tampa Bay Buccaneers try to keep their division hopes alive

Chicago's trade for Jeffery Simmons already paying off as he and Montez Sweat anchor a surging defense

Primetime games almost always have better match-ups. I’m fairly certain every NFL team is given at least one primetime game each season. However, some teams have significantly more games in the Primetime window than others. The Bears, who play tonight on Sunday Night Football, are one of those teams, and they are playing in their third straight primetime slot. The Buccaneers haven’t had as many primetime games, but this could be a good one either way.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers come into this game with a 3-5 record and are coming off one of the most interesting wins of the entire season. They shut out the Falcons and won 16-0, but that isn’t even the most unique part of the victory. It was that they won the game without completing a pass. It was very rainy, but the team only attempted three passes all game. The team ran the ball 56 times – 52 if you only include the running backs. Bucky Irving and Kenny Gainwell combined for 310 rushing yards.

Bucky Irving, wearing Tampa Bay Buccaneers uniform number 7, celebrates after scoring a touchdown.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Bucky Irving celebrates after scoring a touchdown against the Dallas Cowboys in the first half of an NFL football game in Arlington, Texas, on Thursday, Oct. 8, 2026. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez)

The rest of the season hasn’t been overly impressive, but they have won three of the past four games. They beat Dallas by eight points behind their backup quarterback. They lost to the Steelers in overtime, and it was unfortunate because they were winning almost the entire game. They destroyed the Panthers, and then they beat the Falcons. It was a rough start to the season, but their division isn’t very good, so maybe they still have a chance to win it.

I guess I should start with an apology to the Chicago Bears. They are better than I expected and better than I gave them credit for. I had a lot of questions about if their team had actually won any impressive games. My conclusion was… not really. Last week, they played a great game against a very good Seattle team. Their offense was strong behind a great running game and timely passes. Best of all, a delay-of-game penalty actually saved the Bears. They had the penalty and then threw a 30+ yards screen pass the next play that set up a touchdown.

Jeffery Simmons leaves the field at Lumen Field after the Bears defeated the Seahawks.
Chicago Bears defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons (99) leaves the field after the Bears defeated the Seattle Seahawks at Lumen Field in Seattle, Wash., on Nov. 2, 2026. (IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect)

The Bears kind of went all in last week. They traded for Jeffery Simmons to shore up their defense, and he was instantly an impact on the team. He had six tackles and a sack. What it really did was open up some other guys to get in on the action and give more pressure. Simmons was doubled most of the night, and he looked great. It was impressive that Simmons was putting that much energy and effort into the game. I think he can be a real difference maker, and if he keeps it up, Chicago won’t miss the picks it gave up for him.

Caleb Williams avoids the rush
Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams (18) looks to pass with pressure from Pittsburgh Steelers linebacker T.J. Watt (90) during the first half of an NFL football game Sunday, Nov. 23, 2025, in Chicago. (AP Photo/Nam Huh)

I’ve always thought draft picks were a bit overrated in football, but because of the salary cap, I do understand the extra value. The Bears are playing good football, and the Buccaneers are starting to turn it around. The weather won’t be great for the game, but it should be good enough for the teams to score. I like the over, but I prefer to take the Bears -6. I think Tampa will struggle against Simmons and Montez Sweat. Give me the Bears, but I would also advise taking them in a teaser.

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024

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