It's time for another edition of our FCS Playoff Picture series, which returned two weeks ago for the 2026 season. We have narrowed the potential field to 39 teams, which means 15 teams will have to be eliminated over the final two weeks.

After each week, we will look at each conference and take a look at which teams should be considered locks, contenders, or have work to do. 24 teams will make the 2026 FCS Playoffs, which feature 11 automatic bids and 13 at-large bids. The focus of this series will be the at-large bids and the "bubble" picture, but we will also discuss some of the conference races.

Right now, there are 13 teams that have already earned either "Lock" or "Should Be In" status. If you add all the one-bid leagues into that, it leaves eight spots for roughly 19 teams to fight over the remaining at-large bids into the field. It's the best time of the year for FCS football.

"Locks" are teams that have clinched an auto bid or have a strong enough resume to earn an at-large bid. "Should Be In" are teams that are on track to be in the playoffs but must avoid slip-ups down the stretch. "Work To Do" features teams that still need stronger resumes to make the playoffs.

Below is a breakdown of the playoff picture conference by conference entering Week 11.

Big Sky

Locks: Montana State, Northern Arizona

Montana State is a lock with a 9-1 overall record, an FBS win over Nevada, and a future SOS of 21st nationally. The Bobcats have one of the best FCS wins in the country over NAU, but had to escape with a 3OT win over Idaho State last weekend. The race among the Top 4 teams is extremely tight, so it'll be important for the Bobcats to continue to dominate, especially if Tarleton State and South Dakota State continue to put up impressive performances. A lot of this will come down to the massive battle between the Bobcats and Montana at the end of the season in Bozeman.

Northern Arizona locked up its spot in the field with a win over struggling Cal Poly. The Lumberjacks only have one FCS loss, which came on the road against Montana State, but they have quality wins over Montana, Idaho State, and Incarnate Word. While NAU's spot in the field is secure, its actual seed is not. If they win out, they should comfortably be around the 5-seed, with an outside shot at Top 4 if chaos occurs. However, if they lose to Weber State, then I don't think a Top 8 seed is a guarantee.

Should Be In: None
Work To Do: Montana, Weber State, Idaho State, Idaho

Montana was one of the most interesting teams in this week's playoff picture. I almost moved the Griz up to the "Should Be In" tier because I believe the committee would never leave out a 7-win Montana team due to the brand. However, this resume is just not great and wouldn't compare favorably to other teams on the bubble. They do have the 14th-ranked SOS, but their best win is against UC Davis, which looks worse and worse each week. According to the Massey ratings, Montana still hasn't beaten a Top 20 team nationally.

If the Griz can win one of their final two games, they'll be securely in the field with 8 wins, but if they lose both, I don't think this team will be comfortable on the bubble. If they find a way to win both, this team immediately jumps into the Top 8 seed conversation. Nobody has a bigger seed variance than the Grizzlies right now.

Speaking of UC Davis, the Aggies are barely alive in the playoff discussion. The Aggies have one of the lowest SOS rankings among Big Sky teams, plus their best win is over Eastern Washington, which is 2-8 this season. The combined record of the teams they've beaten is 8-32, so it's clear this team literally hasn't beaten anyone. It's a must-win situation against Idaho this weekend, but I'm not sure if that'll even be a quality win if the Vandals don't finish above .500.

Weber State and Idaho are playing very good football right now; both have responded after tough starts to the season. The Wildcats are ranked 21st by Massey with the 19th-toughest SOS, while Idaho ranks 15th with an SOS of 7th nationally. Both teams have a strong argument to get into the field at 7-5, but the Vandals have the overall stronger resume despite losing the head-to-head matchup. It's a must-win situation for both teams moving forward.

Idaho State blew its best chance at getting a resume-building win in a 3OT loss to Montana State. Now, they find themselves in a tough spot at 6-4 overall with an FBS win over Utah State and a projected Top 20 SOS. Unfortunately, the Bengals end the season against two of the best teams in the country (Montana & Idaho), while their own offense has been inconsistent all year. Idaho State needs to win both games to secure its spot in the field. Even at 7-5, the Bengals will not be comfortable on Selection Sunday, especially with a loss to Idaho being their final data point for the committee.

CAA

Locks: None
Should Be In: Monmouth

Monmouth is in the best position with an 8-1 record against the FCS and a 7-0 conference record. The Hawks are the only remaining undefeated team in conference play after escaping with a close win over North Carolina A&T. They are guaranteed at least a share of the CAA title with one conference game remaining. A win this weekend over Merrimack will move them into "Lock" status. If Monmouth wins out, the Hawks lack quality non-conference wins, so I think they would earn a seed somewhere in the 9-12 range.

Work To Do: Campbell, UAlbany, Bryant

The bubble picture was cleared up a bit in the CAA this past weekend, with UAlbany losing to Bryant and Campbell officially eliminating Stony Brook. The problem is that UAlbany and Bryant can only reach 8 wins now, and I don't think either would be comfortably in the field at 8-4. With the CAA being rated as one of the worst five conferences in the FCS in most metrics, I think CAA teams need to hit 9 wins to feel good about making it into the field.

Neither Bryant nor UAlbany can reach that mark. Both teams have projected strength of schedules outside the Top 80, plus lack any real quality non-conference wins. Bryant has the head-to-head over UAlbany now, plus a solid win over Princeton, which also beat UAlbany. So, the Bulldogs probably have the better chance to sneak into the field over the Great Danes. I would imagine that neither team gets into the field right now.

There's an argument to have Campbell in the "Should Be In" tier. The Camels already have 8 wins, plus an out-of-conference win over ETSU. The problem is that ETSU has now lost two games in a row, which weakens Campbell's resume. Of course, if the Camels win out, they would win the auto-bid. If Campbell beats Elon this weekend, I think the Camels would officially be a lock to make the field at 9 Division I wins.

Ivy League

Locks: None
Should Be In: None
Work To Do: Harvard, Princeton

As we predicted last week, Princeton defeated Dartmouth and placed Harvard back in control of this conference race. With Harvard's win over the Tigers, it means that the Crimson would need to lose again, while Princeton wins its remaining two games to earn the auto-bid. It also means that the two-bid Ivy League is officially dead. Even at 8-2, Princeton and Harvard do not have the resume to earn an at-large bid.

MVFC

Locks: Youngstown State, South Dakota State

South Dakota State and Youngstown State sit very comfortably in the "Lock" tier as potential Top 4 seeds. The Penguins have one final game against Illinois State, in which a win will most likely secure a Top 4 seed. SDSU has two winnable games against Southern Illinois and Indiana State, but the Salukis could be desperate, so keep an eye on that matchup. SDSU is in a great spot to jump either Tarleton State or Montana State, especially if either slips up over these last two games. If the Jacks continue to dominate, they could have the resume to jump those teams if either fails to look impressive.

Should Be In: South Dakota, North Dakota

South Dakota remains in this tier after a much-needed bye week after a rivalry loss to SDSU. The Coyotes are 7-2 against the FCS, and while their last loss keeps them out of the Top 4 seed discussion, if they win out, they'll certainly earn one of the last available Top 8 seeds. They will finish the season with games against UNI and Illinois State.

North Dakota made things much easier for itself with a dominant win over Illinois State. The Fighting Hawks have officially reached 7 wins, which includes a solid SOS, a win over SDSU, and two competitive losses to Top 10 opponents. They finally get a bye week before ending the season with a game against Southern Illinois. A win over SIU should put them into the Top 8 seed discussion, especially with their resume and the overall eye test. They have 3 FCS losses by a combined 13 points.

Work To Do: Illinois State, Southern Illinois

Illinois State didn't do itself any favors by losing to North Dakota, but it's even worse that the Redbirds weren't even competitive. At 7-3 overall, 6-3 against Division I opponents, their FBS win over Northern Illinois looks average at best, as NIU is the worst team in the FBS. Their best FCS win is over Southern Illinois, which is most likely not even a playoff team. With two games remaining, both against Top 10 teams, they have to win one of them. If they lose both games, I believe this team will be sitting on the outside looking in.

Southern Illinois knows the position it's in going into this weekend. At 5-4 against the FCS, the Salukis must beat both SDSU and UND to reach 7 Division I wins. Also, it should be noted that Northern Iowa was not included above because they have been eliminated with their loss to SDSU. At 4-5 overall, the Panthers can only reach 6 Division I wins, which should not get them into the field in a 12-game season.

NEC

Locks: None
Should Be In: None
Work To Do: Central Connecticut State, Long Island

This will be another one-bid league, but the race for the auto-bid could be over this weekend with a Central Connecticut State win. The Blue Devils have been impressive, knocking off potential challengers in dominant fashion each week. They have a two-game lead over the rest of the conference, while Long Island is the only other team that's still alive. These teams play this weekend, but it feels like CCSU is going to emerge as the NEC auto-bid this season.

OVC

Locks: None
Should Be In: None
Work To Do: SEMO, Lindenwood, Western Illinois

The OVC will be a one-bid league this season. SEMO looked to be the favorite before falling on its face against Gardner-Webb two weeks ago. Now, we have a three-way tie at the top of the standings, and all three teams won last week. SEMO holds the head-to-head advantage over Lindenwood and Western Illinois, but finishes the year with tricky games against UT Martin and Charleston Southern. Lindenwood and WIU will play a potential elimination game in the final week of the season.

Patriot League

Locks: None
Should Be In: None
Work To Do: Lehigh, Villanova, Richmond

Lehigh is very close to "Should Be In" status after crushing Colgate, which removed the Raiders from the playoff picture. However, Lehigh still only has 8 wins, none against anyone who even has a shot at the playoffs right now. The Mountain Hawks are in a good position to win the auto-bid, but do need to beat both Richmond and Lafayette to end the year.

Speaking of Richmond, the Spiders are barely hanging on here. They lack a signature win and have been terrible the past two weeks. They are technically still mathematically alive, but they must win out to have any shot at the postseason.

Villanova is the most fascinating case in this conference. The Wildcats have two really bad losses to Morgan State and William & Mary, but have a quality win over Lehigh. They've also passed the eye test recently, hitting their stride at the right time, plus have the brand recognition that the committee may favor over other bubble teams. Keep an eye on the Wildcats this weekend against Holy Cross.

Pioneer League

Locks: None
Should Be In: None
Work To Do: Dayton, Butler

Another one-bid league, but this past weekend was huge for the playoff picture and conference title race. With Butler beating St. Thomas, it puts Dayton in an excellent position due to a head-to-head win over Butler earlier this season. Now, the Flyers just have to win out, and they play two teams in the bottom half of the conference (Davidson & Presbyterian).

SoCon

Locks: Tennessee Tech

Tennessee Tech officially makes it into "Lock" status after a dominant win over VMI. The Golden Eagles have a huge game against Mercer this weekend, which could end up being the SoCon championship game. They have a decent resume for seeding with a projected SOS of 38th and a non-conference win over Monmouth. This team has a real argument for a Top 8 seed, but needs to hope that Montana or North Dakota don't crash the Top 8 seed conversation. Either way, with a win this weekend, the Golden Eagles will be in a great spot. A loss could push them into one of the last Top 16 seeds.

Should Be In: Mercer

Mercer won an important game against Chattanooga last weekend and should feel good about getting into the field with 8 wins, solid metrics, and a good non-conference victory over Abilene Christian. The Bears have a tough finish to the year with games against Tennessee Tech and ETSU. Mercer has a chance to get into the Top 8 seed conversation with two wins, but could be going on the road in the first round with two losses. If they split these games, they would most likely be one of the last Top 16 seeds.

Work To Do: ETSU

ETSU really damaged its playoff hopes with a loss to Samford. They were already in a tricky spot, and now they find themselves on the chopping block. ETSU is 6-4 overall with only five Division I wins, which makes the next two games must-win situations. Even with wins, I don't think this team would be a lock to make the field. They lack a quality non-conference win and would need some help from some of the other bubble teams.

Southland

Locks: Stephen F. Austin, Lamar

Stephen F. Austin and Lamar played a very entertaining game, but with the win going to the Cardinals, it puts both teams into "Lock" status, plus both teams will have an excellent shot at earning a Top 8 seed. Lamar has an excellent resume with an SOS of 28th and four wins over Top 20 teams according to the Massey ratings. In my opinion, they clearly have the 5th-best resume in the country, with two winnable games against East Texas A&M and McNeese remaining.

The Lumberjacks still have an excellent shot at earning a Top 8 seed if they can win their final two games. They would still like to see a few other teams, like North Dakota and Austin Peay, drop a game down the stretch. They also can't afford for teams like Montana to win some big games late and make a jump over them. SFA will need to refocus with a tricky road game against UTRGV this weekend, especially if quarterback Gavin Rutherford is out with an injury.

Should Be In: None
Work To Do: Incarnate Word

Incarnate Word got an important win on the road over Southeastern Louisiana, plus did it in dominant fashion. The eye test would have this UIW team easily in the field, plus they are a Top 20 team in the Massey ratings. The Cardinals played three Top 10 teams on the road, losing by a combined 15 points, and had a chance to win all three games. At 8-4, they would only have seven Division I wins, but the performances would tell you they belong in the field. None of this matters if UIW doesn't win its final two games.

UAC

Locks: Tarleton State

Tarleton State is now in a great spot after securing a big win over conference rival Abilene Christian, doing so in impressive fashion. The Texans are 10-0 and finish with two tricky road games against West Florida and North Alabama. This team has a projected SOS of 47th, but as the only team in the country that can get to 12 Division I wins, they should feel great about earning a Top 2 seed.

Should Be In: Austin Peay

Austin Peay has a really great chance to get an at-large bid at 8-2 overall and 8-1 against the FCS. The Govs ceiling might be very limited. Austin Peay's best win is over 4-4 West Florida, and they have a key game against Abilene Christian this weekend, but with a win, ACU will likely finish the season at 6-6, so how will the committee view that win? I think this team will end up somewhere in the 7-10 seed range if they win out.

Work To Do: Abilene Christian, North Alabama

Abilene Christian put itself in a tough spot with the loss at Tarleton State, but it's not an impossible spot. The Wildcats have been playing well and very much have a chance to win this week over Austin Peay. They could use some help from teams like Mercer and Idaho continuing to win. ACU is still rated as the 16th-best team in the country by Massey and has a future SOS of 17th. This weekend is a must-win situation if they want to have a chance at an at-large.

North Alabama continues to hang around the playoff picture at 6-4 with no bad losses. The Lions got a huge win over West Florida, which was a big first step in staying alive in the postseason race. They need a win against West Georgia this weekend, but it ultimately comes down to whether they can pull off the upset over Tarleton State in the final game of the regular season.