Mirra Andreeva reached the semi-finals of the WTA Finals on Wednesday after a (new) spectacular collapse from Aryna Sabalenka. The second seed led 4-1 with a break in the first set in Indian Wells, then lost the next 11 games, and the match 6-4, 6-0.

Andreeva, the third seed, is assured of finishing first in Group 2, while Sabalenka will play Elina Svitolina on Friday for the second semi-final spot.

“I’m even happier than I was after my first match,” Andreeva said in her on-court interview. “I feel like I could play another two matches. I’m so full of energy. I’m so pumped up. I’m so happy.”

From 4-1 up, Sabalenka won only 10 of the last 55 points. Andreeva won the next 12 points in a row, three love games that took her to 4-4, and 31 of the 35 points played between 4-1 in the first set and 0-40 on Sabalenka’s serve at 0-2 in the second.

The second set was one-way traffic. Sabalenka was broken in all three of her service games, saving five break points along the way, and won only two points on Andreeva’s serve in the set. The Russian sealed the match with a love hold.

WTA Finals Group 2: provisional standings

Andreeva cannot be caught: even if she loses to Muchova on Friday, she holds head-to-head wins over both possible rivals.

Muchova is eliminated. Sabalenka and Svitolina meet in a straight shoot-out for second place. The semi-finals are on Saturday.

How Sabalenka lost control

The statistics reflect the gap. Sabalenka made 23 unforced errors to Andreeva’s six, hit eight winners to 16, and served no aces to her opponent’s five. She won only 15 of her 30 first-serve points and five of 16 behind her second serve, and held just three of her eight service games. Andreeva won 30 of the 39 points on her own serve and broke five times in 10 chances.

The scenario recalled Sabalenka’s quarter-final at Roland-Garros in June. Against Diana Shnaider, she led by a set and 4-1, before losing 3-6, 7-5, 6-0, winning just one of the last 13 games. On Wednesday, she kept her composure better on court than she had in Paris, but the result followed the same pattern.

For Andreeva, it was a second win over a top-10 player this week, after her 6-4, 6-0 victory over Svitolina on Monday. The 19-year-old has now won her last two meetings with Sabalenka, after beating her in the 2025 Indian Wells final, on the same court, and is on a run of four straight sets at her first WTA Finals.