After three games and two defeats, AC Milan have put themselves in a far from ideal situation in the Europa League standings. 

Ahead of the season, it was made clear that Milan would fight for a top four spot in Serie A and to go far in the Europa League. Three games into the latter competition, however, it’s becoming apparent that they could struggle to even reach the knockout phase.

Of course, the goal has always been to finish in the top 8 to avoid the additional knockout play-off games, but with two defeats in the first three games, that is looking unlikely. So, what will be needed for them to reach the knockout phase?

Upcoming games and minimum points

As highlighted by Gazzetta dello Sport earlier today, there is a lot of pessimism among the fans after the defeats. It doesn’t get any brighter by looking at the upcoming fixtures either, as the Hungarian side Ferencváros (three wins so far) and the Greek side Olympiacos (three wins too) are up next.

Then, the Rossoneri will be up against Sunderland, who have won two and drawn one. Two of these tough games will be played at San Siro, while the Olympiacos clash is away from home. That helps a little, but the run remains tough.

The last two games should be the easiest: The Bulgarian side Levski Sofia away from home and then the Armenian side Ararat-Armenia at San Siro. But okay, how many points will Milan need to reach the knockout phase?

In the 2024-25 season, the minimum for clinching a top 8 finish was 14 points. For reaching the knockout play-offs, however, the minimum was ten points. Last season, Roma qualified as the eighth-placed club with 16 points, while the final play-offs spot required just nine points.

Milan are on three points as they stand (thanks to the win against Salzburg), so winning the ‘easy’ games mentioned above would take them to nine points at least. Of course, if they really pick themselves up, a top 8 finish could be back within reach.