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Former Ireland internationals Ian Madigan and Darren Cave have outlined the areas they believe will decide Ireland’s heavyweight Nations Championship showdown with South Africa in two weekends time, with the pair arguing that Andy Farrell’s side must first prove they can match the Springboks scrum before any talk of an upset can begin.
The discussion came in the aftermath of Ireland’s win over Argentina on Virgin Media Sport, with attention quickly turning towards the looming test against the reigning world champions.
For Madigan, everything starts up front.
Looking back on Ireland’s humbling defeat to the Boks in Dublin last year, the ex-Leinster and Ireland fly-half insisted the scoreboard failed to tell the full story of just how dominant Rassie Erasmus’ team had been.
“If you think back to the game against South Africa last year, while it wasn’t a comprehensive loss on the scoreboard, it was a comprehensive loss looking at it,” Madigan said.
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“We were beaten up, up front. In particular, our scrum wasn’t able to hold up.”
However, Madigan believes Ireland’s pack has evolved significantly since then and pointed to several forwards he feels are now operating at an elite level.
“I think our front five is becoming genuinely world-class,” he said.
“I thought Porter was exceptional last night, alongside the likes of Sheehan and Furlong. Joe McCarthy really stepping up into the potential that we know he has. That is the foundation of whether we can be competitive with South Africa or not.”
Madigan also highlighted the aerial battle as a critical area against a Springbok side renowned for squeezing opponents through territory and pressure.
“And then, the aerial contest is such a big part of the game now, and we’re getting the ball aerially accurate to give our wingers the opportunity to win the ball back.
“You can’t give the South African team access into the game in that area. And if we can be competitive in both of those, we do have the attacking game to really challenge them.”
Cave agreed that Ireland’s scrum remains the key battleground, arguing that the psychological damage inflicted by South Africa during their last visit to Dublin may have been as significant as the result itself.
“I think it’s not only the result of the South Africa game, because last time when they came to Dublin, they won, but it was the manner and their ability just to say, like, ‘We’re gonna scrum, and we’re gonna scrum, and we’re gonna scrum, and we’re gonna annihilate that part of your game.'”
The former Ulster centre added: “I think mentally and emotionally… if South Africa come to Dublin and annihilate our scrum, then that’s a long way to come back to really believe deep down that you can beat that team in a World Cup.”
While Cave admitted he would have concerns if the teams were meeting in a World Cup final tomorrow, he stressed Ireland still has time to develop further before rugby’s biggest stage arrives.
“If this was a World Cup final, I would be a little nervous, but remember, we’re a year away. There’s still time to grow.”
Cave also called for greater exposure for players outside Ireland’s established core, naming Ulster’s Tom O’Toole and Connacht’s Sam Illo as examples of squad members who need more opportunities in high-pressure environments.
“I’d love to see the likes of O’Toole and Sam Illo get more game time, the players that we know are good, but they’re not in that world-class category. So these guys need to play again in these type of games.”
The conversation then turned to whether Ireland should attempt to mirror New Zealand’s blueprint by keeping the ball alive and attacking in transition rather than engaging South Africa in a territorial kicking contest.
Cave’s response was telling.
While the Springboks were once viewed as a side built almost exclusively around power, kicking and set-piece dominance, he believes they have added enough attacking firepower to become a far more complete challenge.
“I think the thing that’s really scary about this South Africa team, the depth, which we touched on, but it’s their ability to change how they play as well,” he said. “South Africa used to be this Nienaber team, that it was kick and smash, kick and smash. But when you look now, we know what their front five does, we know what their set piece does, we know what their kicking game does.”
Cave then pointed to the individual brilliance now available to Erasmus in the outside backs.
“But also I think, from an X-factor point of view, those players, they’re actually probably top of the… if not top, they’re top three in the world in terms of players that you could just say, ‘Do that.’
“Especially now that they’ve moved away from the likes of a Pollard at 10 to Feinberg-Mngomezulu.
“The likes of Sasha, the likes of Kurt-Lee Arendse… Kolbe’s not playing. Like, they have it.
“And if I was coaching and playing against them, I’d ask to go back to the studio,” joked Cave. “I’m glad it’s not my job. It’s a tricky one.”