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Xabi Alonso has been criticised, but Chelsea’s expected points show they’re actually overperforming
Xabi Alonso, Manager of Chelsea
Photo by Chris Lee – Chelsea FC/Chelsea FC via Getty Images

After Chelsea lost 2-0 to Tottenham Hotspur last month, Xabi Alonso received a lot of stick.

You would have to say that most of it was fair. The Chelsea manager got his tactics and line-up wrong and did not change anything until after the hour mark.

His Morgan Rogers as the No.9 experiment did not work, while the midfield got absolutely dominated by Mateus Fernandes and Sandro Tonali. Despite being the home side, Chelsea finished the game with just 31% ball possession.

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In September, they were also well beaten by Brentford after losing 3-0 to their west London rivals, which followed their 2-2 draw with newly-promoted Hull City at Stamford Bridge. It is no surprise that Chelsea fans are not completely sold on Alonso yet.

However, it appears that Chelsea are actually overperforming in the Premier League under their new manager! How so?

Well, according to Opta Analyst, Chelsea’s expected points tally by this stage of the season is only 12.6. That would have them outside of the top four.

Their actual points total, though, is 16, which has them sitting in fourth place. That is where they will want to be come the end of the campaign, and it does seem possible when you have a frontline of Cole Palmer, Morgan Rogers and Joao Pedro. That frontline is why Chelsea are overperforming right now.

Palmer, Rogers and Pedro have all scored more goals than expected based on their xG. This season, Rogers and Pedro have both scored five goals each, while Palmer has netted three times. Yet Pedro only has an xG of 3.0, Rogers 2.8 and Palmer 2.5, as per FotMob.

Ultimately, that attack has been clinical. It, therefore, makes sense that Chelsea have picked up points in games they were not expected to based on the quality of chances they created in those matches.

Unfortunately, Pedro will not be available for Chelsea’s trip to Sunderland as he nurses a thigh injury. There is no doubt, though, that Pedro, Palmer and Rogers all start in Chelsea’s best XI.

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