Flavio Cobolli, Arthur Fils, Frances Tiafoe, and Rafael Jodar will all play their opening matches on the first two days in Turin, and they’ll be up against some of the biggest names in the field. The real question this year is whether the four debutantes actually have a chance at the title or if their tournaments will end after the group stage.

Flavio Cobolli

Flavio Cobolli is the 5th seed at this year’s ATP Finals and will be making his tournament debut in front of home fans. With Jannik Sinner out for the season, Cobolli will be the lone player representing Italy at home in Turin. He has one title this year in Acapulco, where he beat Frances Tiafoe in the final. He also reached the Roland Garros final, losing to Alexander Zverev in five sets.

Cobolli is coming off the best season of his career, during which he reached the top 10 for the first time in June and a career-high No. 6 in August. His record stands at 36-24 this season. The main question for Cobolli is his fitness, after he retired from his Vienna match with a muscle strain and withdrew from the Paris Masters, and he has not played since. Cobolli opens Monday night against Daniil Medvedev, who leads their head-to-head 2-1, though the Italian won their latest meeting in Madrid this year.

Arthur Fils

Arthur Fils is the first Frenchman to qualify for the Finals since Gaël Monfils in 2016, calling it a childhood dream. The sixth seed has won two titles this year, Barcelona and Cincinnati, and has a 39-16 record. He reached a career-high ranking of No. 7 this season after missing about eight months with a chronic back injury.

Fils drew arguably the more difficult group at the Finals this year, which includes Alexander Zverev, Ben Shelton, and Rafael Jodar. Zverev leads Fils 5-2, Shelton leads 2-1, and Jodar has beaten him twice this year. He has five top-10 wins this season, tied with Tiafoe for the second most in the field behind Alcaraz. If he’s healthy, Fils has a shot at the semifinals, but he’ll need to play at his highest level.

Frances Tiafoe

Frances Tiafoe is the oldest of the debutants at 28, and he got there after the most productive season of his decade-long career. This season, he won a title in Halle, the biggest title of his career, and rose to a career-high No. 8 in the ATP rankings. He also reached the Cincinnati final and the US Open semifinals, earning a record of 44-21.

No injury problems have been reported, but Tiafoe’s main concern is his recent form. Since the US Open semifinals, he has lost to Fils in Tokyo, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in Shanghai, Lorenzo Musetti in Vienna, and Quentin Halys in Paris. However, his record against top-10 opponents is slightly better at 5-5.

Tiafoe does have a path out of the group, leading the head-to-head with Cobolli 4-1 and recently upsetting Medvedev on the way to the US Open semifinals. A semifinal spot is realistic if he beats Cobolli and steals one of the other two matches, but a title would be a surprise. Tiafoe opens the ATP Finals on Monday afternoon against Carlos Alcaraz, who leads their head-to-head 2-1, but the two haven’t played since 2024.

Rafael Jodar

Rafael Jodar is the youngest player in the field and was also the last to qualify. The 20-year-old reached the ATP Finals in just his first season on the tour, winning his first tournament in Marrakech earlier this year. He also reached the Roland Garros quarterfinals, a Montreal semifinal, and the Shanghai final throughout the season. Jodar broke into the ATP top 10 on November 2nd, the highest ranking of his career, and his record is 45-19 in his first full season on tour. 

Jodar will play his first ATP Finals match on Sunday afternoon against No. 1 Zverev, who beat him in straight sets in the Roland Garros quarterfinals, which was the only time they have played. His best chance at making the semifinals is through Fils, whom he has beaten twice this year, plus an upset of either Zverev or Shelton. That’s a lot to ask in his first appearance, but Jodar has proven before he can compete with even the league’s top players.

Could a First-Timer Win the ATP Finals?

History says a debut champion is possible, as it’s happened at the ATP Finals several times in the past. Seven players have won the event on their debut, most recently Stefanos Tsitsipas in 2019, who did it as the sixth seed. The others were Grigor Dimitrov in 2017, Alex Corretja in 1998, John McEnroe in 1978, Guillermo Vilas in 1974, Ilie Năstase in 1971, and Stan Smith in 1970.

However, this year’s class faces long odds. The four debutants are seeds five through eight, split evenly between the two groups, and each opens against a higher-seeded player. Each group sends two players to the semifinals, so a first-timer will most likely need two wins to make it. Fils and Tiafoe, who each have five top-10 wins this season, have the strongest case, but a first-time champion would be a surprise.