ORLANDO, FLORIDA - FEBRUARY 07: Jaren Jackson Jr. and Lauri Markkanen #23 of the Utah Jazz looks on against the Orlando Magic during the second half at Kia Center on February 07, 2026 in Orlando, Florida. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Rich Storry/Getty Images)

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In February, the Utah Jazz hit fast-forward on their multi-year rebuild. They traded three future first-round picks to the Memphis Grizzlies as part of a package for star big man Jaren Jackson Jr., including the rights to their fully unprotected 2027 first-rounder.

Fast-forward nine months, and the injury-ravaged Jazz are off to a 1-12 start to the 2026-27 season. It might only get worse from here, too.

Center Jusuf Nurkić has yet to make his season debut because of a toe injury that he suffered in the preseason. Jackson suffered a torn MCL in his right knee early in the season and is expected to be sidelined until at least mid-December. And on Wednesday, the Jazz announced that star forward Lauri Markkanen will be out for at least four weeks because of two nondisplaced fractures in his right hand.

The one silver lining for the Jazz is that even amidst their disappointing start, the NBA’s new draft lottery limited the downside of the trade for them.

Teams are now prohibited from landing top-five picks in three consecutive drafts, and the Jazz had the No. 5 overall pick in 2025 (Ace Bailey) and the No. 2 overall pick in 2026 (Darryn Peterson). No matter how far they sink in the standings, the highest they can land in the lottery is the No. 6 pick…which they’ll then likely send to the Grizzlies. (They owe the highest of their own pick, Cleveland’s pick and Minnesota’s pick to Memphis and will get the second-most favorable of those three.)

While injuries have undeniably contributed to the Jazz’s slow start, it’s fair to wonder whether they’re already having buyer’s remorse over the Jackson trade, particularly given the trickle-down effects it’s had over the past nine months.

The JJJ Dilemma

On paper, Jackson is the ideal modern-day big man. He’s a career 35.1% three-point shooter and has averaged 1.9 blocks per game throughout his nine years in the NBA. He also won Defensive Player of the Year in 2022-23 and racked up three All-Defense nods over the past six seasons.

However, Jackson has a few clear limitations as well. For one, he’s a dismal rebounder, particularly on the offensive glass. As a result, the Grizzlies often felt the need to start him alongside another big man, whether it was Steven Adams, Zach Edey or Brandon Clarke. Utah was seemingly planning the same with Nurkić.

That creates a domino effect across the rest of the roster, though. If Jackson has to start at the 4 and needs a true center alongside him, the 7-foot Markkanen has to slide down to the 3. He had a similar experience in Cleveland alongside Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen, but it’s challenging for him to stick with smaller wings and forwards on defense.

The bigger issue for Utah was Walker Kessler. The Jazz failed to reach an agreement on a rookie-scale extension for him last fall, which meant he became a restricted free agent this past offseason. Instead of a drawn-out, contentious saga like what the Detroit Pistons experienced with Jalen Duren, Kessler and the Jazz came to a quick resolution courtesy of the Los Angeles Lakers.

The Lakers agreed to trade unprotected first-round picks in 2021 and 2023 and first-round swaps in 2028 and 2030 to the Jazz for Kessler, whom they proceeded to sign to a four-year, $130 million contract. Team president Austin Ainge later said that the Jazz were “planning on keeping” Kessler, “but that offer got high enough that we thought it was the right move to make for the Jazz for building a championship team.”

Getting two first-round picks and two first-round swaps for any player, much less someone who has never made an All-Star Game, is an undeniable haul. However, Kessler has fit like a glove in L.A. alongside Luka Dončić and Austin Reaves thus far. Through his first 13 games, he’s averaging a career-high 14.5 points, 10.8 rebounds and 2.2 blocks in only 30.8 minutes while shooting a league-best 67.5% from the floor.

Had the Jazz never traded for Jackson, would they have been as willing to part ways with Kessler this offseason? That’s a question only Ainge and Utah’s front office can answer. But with Jackson and Markkanen each earning 28-30% of the salary cap in each of the next three seasons, the Jazz might not have had the appetite to pony up for another big man this past offseason, particularly with point guard Keyonte George due for an extension as well.

The Draft-Night Domino Effect

Kessler wasn’t the only major offseason decision whom Jackson might have impacted in Utah. The Jazz also had the No. 2 overall pick in the 2026 NBA draft, but the presence of Jackson effectively made their decision for them.

Had the Jazz not traded for Jackson, they might have been more torn between Peterson, whom they ended up selecting, and Duke forward Cam Boozer. The Associated Press chose Boozer as its men’s college basketball national player of the year, making him only the fifth freshman to win that award, while Peterson had an inconsistent freshman season with the Jayhawks because of intermittent cramping issues.

Peterson very well might go on to have a better NBA career than Boozer. Heading into Friday’s games, he was averaging 16.3 points, 4.0 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 2.1 made threes and 1.2 steals while shooting 40.6% overall and 35.7% from deep. Boozer has struggled with his efficiency (36.6% overall, 29.0% from three-point range), but he’s otherwise averaging a well-rounded 15.9 points, 9.8 rebounds and 5.5 assists per game.

By trading for Jackson and selecting Peterson, the Jazz created another potential long-term issue for themselves. If they do plan to start a traditional center alongside Jackson and Markkanen in the frontcourt, Bailey will have no clear path to a starting role in Utah moving forward.

The San Antonio Spurs ran into a similar issue with 2025 No. 2 overall pick Dylan Harper last year, but they pivoted into starting a three-guard lineup this season and have been off to the races ever since. Perhaps the Jazz plan to stick with a George-Peterson-Bailey-Markkanen-Jackson starting five when everyone is healthy again, although that unit has a net rating of minus-2.2 this season, albeit across a minuscule 89-possession sample size.

The Jazz currently have the NBA’s second-worst offense, and they’re only marginally better on defense (24th leaguewide). Injuries haven’t helped their cause in the early going, but they’re going to continue being shorthanded at least for another month. And regardless of whether they can pull out of this early-season tailspin, there’s no silver lining awaiting them in the draft lottery next spring.

The Jazz aren’t likely to make any panic moves until they get a more representative sample size of their full-strength lineup together. However, the domino effects of the Jackson trade over the past nine months might have Utah’s front office wishing it held off on any major moves until after it saw how the 2026 draft lottery played out.