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FPI Projects Final Score for Virginia Tech-Stanford: Can The Hokies Claim Win No. 7?

The Hokies lost to SMU 51-28 in Dallas on Nov. 6.

Nov 6, 2026; Dallas, Texas; SMU offensive lineman PJ Williams (59) blocks Virginia Tech defensive lineman Aycen Stevens (42). | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

BLACKSBURG — After a 23-point loss to SMU in Dallas, Virginia Tech football is back in Blacksburg for a Saturday night showdown with Stanford in Lane Stadium.

The Hokies (6-3, 3-3 ACC) clinched bowl eligibility Oct. 24 with a win over Clemson, their first over the Tigers since 2007. However, they then allowed a season-high 51 points to SMU, their most points conceded in a single game since the 2021 Pinstripe Bowl against Maryland (54-10).

Virginia Tech quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer has been one of the Hokies' most productive players this season, completing 71.7% of his passes for 2,431 yards, 18 touchdowns and three interceptions. The junior leads the ACC in completions with 215 and is averaging 270.1 passing yards per game.

Grunkemeyer completed 28 of his 38 passes for 291 yards, one touchdown and one interception against SMU, while also recording his sixth rushing touchdown of the season.

Running back Jeffrey Overton Jr. has also emerged as a significant contributor to Virginia Tech's offense, rushing for 762 yards and six touchdowns on 126 carries. The sophomore recorded 123 rushing yards and two touchdowns against the Mustangs, marking his third 100-yard rushing performance of the season. Que'Sean Brown leads Virginia Tech's receiving corps with 60 receptions for 722 yards and four touchdowns, while tight end Luke Reynolds has added 493 receiving yards and six touchdowns.

Stanford (4-5, 2-4 ACC) enters Saturday's contest looking to improve its own postseason outlook, needing two wins in its last three games to become bowl eligible. Cardinal quarterback Davis Warren has completed 60.4% of his passes for 2,203 yards, 14 touchdowns and three interceptions this season. Warren is averaging 244.8 passing yards per game through nine contests.

Running back Micah Ford has rushed for 751 yards and eight touchdowns on 156 carries, while wide receiver CJ High leads Stanford with 449 receiving yards and four touchdowns.

Defensively, Virginia Tech defensive lineman Aycen Stevens has recorded 8.5 sacks this season, while linebacker Kaleb Spencer leads the Hokies with 49 tackles. Stanford safety Jay Green has recorded 57 tackles, while linebacker George Kaminski has contributed two sacks.

Saturday's matchup presents an opportunity for Virginia Tech to secure its seventh victory and bounce back from its defensive struggles against SMU. ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI), which measures team strength and projects game outcomes, favors Virginia Tech in Saturday's contest.

The Hokies enter the matchup with a 90.5% chance of victory, according to ESPN Analytics, leaving Stanford with a 9.5% chance of pulling off the road upset. With bowl eligibility already secured, Virginia Tech will look to build momentum over its final three regular-season games, beginning with Saturday night's matchup against the Cardinal.

Virginia Tech's clash against Stanford kicks off at 7:30 p.m. ET on the ACC Network.

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