ESPN analyst Greg McElroy believes Texas’ turnover problems will catch up with the Longhorns at Missouri, making the Tigers his lone outright upset pick of Week 10 as both 6-2 SEC teams fight to stay in the College Football Playoff race.

McElroy backed the Tigers on his Always College Football podcast, predicting a low-scoring game decided by ball security. “The team that gives it away just one time, that’s the team that’s going to lose,” he said.

Why is Greg McElroy picking Missouri?

“Missouri is +8 in turnover margin. Texas is -3,” McElroy said. “That’s probably the clearest season-long difference between these two teams.”

The Tigers turned four Arkansas turnovers into 24 points in last week’s win in Fayetteville, and Missouri coach Eli Drinkwitz said afterward that “turnovers are the name of the game.” McElroy added that Missouri has scored 62 points off takeaways this season without allowing a point off a giveaway.

“So when his team wins the turnover battle by one or more, Eli Drinkwitz is 39-4,” McElroy said.

Texas checked in at No. 7 in the first College Football Playoff rankings, 11 spots ahead of Missouri. Still, both Missouri losses came on the road against Mississippi State and Ole Miss, two teams Texas beat over the last two weeks.

Arch Manning’s costly turnover trouble

Texas quarterback Arch Manning has 15 touchdown passes and averages 8 yards per attempt, but McElroy flagged his seven interceptions as a problem against a team that “cashes mistakes in very, very quickly.” Both Texas losses came by three points and turned on fourth-quarter turnovers, including a pick-six against Oklahoma and a strip-sack with under two minutes left against Florida.

Mississippi State sacked the redshirt junior six times last Saturday, and Texas now plays without left tackle Trevor Goosby, who suffered a season-ending knee injury against Ole Miss.

“They average getting sacked nearly one out of every 10 dropbacks,” McElroy said of Texas. “That’s 126th because the breakdowns come from all over the protection.”

The ESPN analyst said Texas has struggled when its receivers have to beat man coverage snap after snap, and he called Missouri’s cornerbacks “about as good as you find when it comes to playing that coverage week in and week out.”

How does Texas reach 24 points?

McElroy questioned how Texas coach Steve Sarkisian’s offense gets there. “When his team scores fewer than 24 points, Steve Sarkisian is 14-35,” McElroy said. “And Texas already goes three-and-out on more than a quarter of their possessions.”

The Longhorns’ running game offers little relief, with McElroy saying their backs “are getting hit almost as soon as they take the handoff.” Running back Hollywood Smothers is out, and receivers Ryan Wingo and Cam Coleman were both listed as questionable on Thursday’s SEC availability report.

Wingo, a St. Louis native Missouri recruited out of high school, leads Texas with 36 catches for 470 yards, while Coleman, an Auburn transfer, leads the team with seven touchdown catches. McElroy’s route to 24 points runs through Wingo “in the catch-and-run game” against a Missouri defense he said sits “at or near the bottom as far as missed tackles,” plus “one Coleman shot over the top.”

“But without it, Texas might be living on field goals, which is a dangerous recipe on the road,” McElroy said.

A loss would send Texas to LSU next week with three defeats, a scenario ESPN analyst Paul Finebaum said could cause the Longhorns to “collapse.” Texas visits Missouri at noon ET Saturday on ESPN.