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Celtic’s Europa League Math

Martin O’Neill believes Celtic can still qualify from the Europa League league phase, but admits they are running out of matches to turn their campaign around.

The Hoops host Beşiktaş on Thursday after opening defeats against Ferencváros, Benfica and Celta Vigo left them without a point.

Five fixtures remain, but only two are at Celtic Park. That makes picking up victories away from home central to O’Neill’s suggested ten-point target.

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“It’ll be our fourth game, and we need to get off the mark at some stage,” he said.

“I think that Liam and I would both come to that conclusion. I was told that, statistically speaking, any team who’s lost their first three games haven’t made it through.

“So, it doesn’t augur brilliantly for us, if that’s the case. But I know what he’s saying.

“We’re definitely running out of matches, no question. But we are capable of still qualifying.

“If, let’s say, 10 points is the mark, it means you really have to go away and win, not draw.”

Ten points usually sees teams progress into the next round, but as O’Neill pointed out, no team has ever lost their three games and progressed. So Celtic would have to make history.

Even victories in both remaining home games, combined with draws in all three away fixtures, would leave Celtic on nine points.

Celtic manager Martin O'Neill takes his seat before the Europa League match against Benfica in Lisbon
Celtic’s head coach Martin O’Neill takes his seat before the Europa League opening phase soccer match between SL Benfica and Celtic in Lisbon, Thursday, Oct. 15, 2026. (AP Photo/Armando Franca)

First, Celtic need to give themselves something to build on against a Beşiktaş side who also suffered frustration at the weekend, throwing away a two-goal lead against Kasımpaşa.

Qualification remains mathematically possible, but Celtic have already used up three opportunities, and another home match without a win would leave an even steeper, near-impossible, task on the road. The first two seasons of the league-phase format back up O’Neill’s concern. In 2024/25, Fenerbahçe took the final play-off place in 24th on 10 points, while Braga and Elfsborg went out on the same total with a worse goal difference. Last season Brann claimed 24th spot with nine points, and no side in either campaign reached the top 24 after losing its first three matches.

Celtic finished 21st on 11 points last season, a total that would have been enough in both campaigns. Reaching it from their last five games would take three wins and two draws, and with only Beşiktaş and Marseille still to come to Celtic Park, at least one of those wins would have to come away from home.

Celtic's Europa League Math

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