France Football will publish the detailed 2026 Ballon d’Or vote results on Saturday, but it has already been teased by the magazine’s editor-in-chief that this was a closer battle between the top three than perhaps anyone even realized.

In truth, this always felt like the most open race in years. Harry Kane collected the famous golden trophy, breaking a 25-year absence of an English winner in the process.

He was a deserving recipient because of his goalscoring feats for Bayern Munich and England over the course of the 2025–26 season. But there were equally compelling arguments to be made for Kylian Mbappé and Lamine Yamal, who finished second and third respectively.

The jury, consisting of one journalist from each of FIFA’s top 100 ranked nations, was initially backing Mbappé when the first votes were cast, France Football’s Vincent Garcia told sister publication L’Équipe following the ceremony.

Mbappé, he said, was “ahead in the race for most of the voting period.” But Kane then “came back strongly” to clinch the accolade instead.

“The gap in points between Kane and Mbappé is extremely small,” Garcia added, “even less than the gap between Rodri and Vinícius [Júnior] in 2024, which amounted to 41 points.”

That year, Rodri took the crown with 1,170 points, with Vinícius Jr on 1,129. Jude Bellingham was third with 917, before there was a sharp drop for the rest of the top 10. In 2025, Ousmane Dembélé was a much clearer winner, emerging with 1,380 points, over 300 more than Yamal in second place. This system of voting has been in place since 2016, after the Ballon d’Or split with FIFA and voting returned to the control of France Football, as it previously was from 1956–2008.

But it’s hard to compare winning points margins any further back than 2024 because of an adjustment to the voting. In 2023 and earlier, the jury would choose a top five from the 30-strong shortlist, awarding their first pick six points, down to one point for their fifth. Starting in 2024, the jury has been asked to select a top 10, with 15 points going to their each voter’s top selection, down to one for their 10th. It means more points and higher tallies.

Was Lamine Yamal Hurt by Diluted Spain Voting?

There were more Spanish players (6) in the 30-strong shortlist than any other nationality. What’s more, all six finished inside the top 18. In comparison, France had five nominees, but two (Dayot Upamecano and William Saliba) placed in the bottom five.

Garcia has a theory that because of Spain’s successes—particularly as a team unit—Lamine Yamal lost points that might otherwise have gone his way. The vote for Spanish players may have ended being split and the veteran journalist believes that Rodri, who finished fourth—one place behind the teenager winger, was the main culprit.

“I honestly believe that Rodri deprived Lamine of some votes,” Garcia theorized.

“In the World Cup-winning Spanish national team, there was a clear split in votes between Rodri and Lamine Yamal, and this split cost them a great deal.

“There was a great dispersal of votes among the Spanish players, and more importantly, the Spanish national team was a complete side and an astonishing collective machine. That is why it was almost impossible for the members of the jury to single out and favour one specific individual performance.”