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The 2026 season could be the most successful season for the Prospect Promotion Incentive. There could potentially be three eligible prospects to net their team draft pick rewards, which shows how successful it's been since its implementation.
In 2026, the fifth and final year of the current Collective Bargaining Agreement, we could see as many as three teams get a pick at the end of the first round. In 2026, there were 97 prospects who satisfied the prospect list requirement. 15 of them have retained eligibility through the 2026 season, per Baseball America's Matt Eddy.
When the Prospect Promotion Incentive was introduced in the 2022 Collective Bargaining Agreement, it created sweeping changes. Much to the point that it's further incentivizing teams to improve their player development and get their best prospects ready to play at a high level in MLB right away.
For prospects to qualify, they must place in at least two of the Top 100 lists for MLB Pipeline, Baseball America, or ESPN. Typically, the types of players who earn these picks are near the top of these lists. But in recent seasons, some prospects who weren't ranked as highly have gone on to earn their teams' picks.
Teams can benefit if PPI-eligible prospects accrue a full season, or 172 days spent on the active roster, during their rookie year and do one of the following:
Satisfying those requirements will net the prospect's club a pick at the end of the first-round. This incentive is designed for teams to consider the benefits of playing prospects who have the talent to change a team's fortunes. Players can earn only one PPI pick for their team while still eligible.
In all five seasons this incentive has been in place, at least one player has earned their team a pick. Here's a recap of each winner by year so far.
The Guardians are guaranteed to get their one selection for Parker Messick, as he was named an American League Cy Young Award finalist. It doesn't matter if he wins Rookie of the Year or not, since they only get one pick.
The other two will come down to each league's Rookie of the Year races. The National League winner is guaranteed to net their team a pick, as JJ Wetherholt, Sal Stewart, and Carson Benge were all qualifying prospects. The third pick will come down to whether Kevin McGonigle can fend off Messick in the AL.
If McGonigle does win the AL Rookie of the Year, it will mark the first time that three teams get a PPI pick. Over the course of the first five seasons, there will be a total of nine draft picks awarded. There is already a natural incentive in place to play such prospects, but the allure of more premium draft capital certainly doesn't hurt from a team-building process.
With three qualifying prospects meeting the satisfying conditions for a PPI pick, there will be three additional picks added to the end of the first round. The projected spots of those picks will depend on if the Mets and Blue Jays get a lottery pick, which can't be moved down. Most likely, these picks will be in the No. 28-30 range in the 2027 MLB Draft.
Considering there's been at least one PPI awarded in every season, the incentive is working as intended. It rewards teams who are excellent at identifying, drafting, and developing young talent. The natural incentive already existed, since it's good for team-building, but this adds a sweetener to that process.
One other note is that the teams they've played on have also been competitive, regarding postseason contention. Five of the six players to earn a PPI pick also played in that same year's postseason. Drake Baldwin is the lone exception, although he got to enjoy October baseball the following season in 2026. All six players have also made at least one MLB All-Star team in their respective careers.
One unintended consequence may be that teams are more willing to extend players at a younger age. Witt, Rodríguez, and Carroll are already on long-term extensions with their current club, with the extensions occurring in the same year as the PPI pick. Depending on how the Rookie of the Year races go, that list could grow to five players with Wetherholt and McGonigle.
Given the success of the Prospect Promotion Incentive and how both sides benefit, it should be a part of the next CBA and beyond. It's a chance for teams to benefit with extra premium draft slots and needle-moving talent at a discount while the union gets high-ranking prospects to the big leagues in more ideal circumstances for them to stick and make more money.
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