ESPN’s Paul Finebaum says Notre Dame needs at least one important win to justify a College Football Playoff berth, and No. 1 Miami’s visit next Saturday is the best chance the Fighting Irish have left to get one.

He made the argument Sunday on “The Matt Barrie Show,” a day after Notre Dame beat Navy 35-13. “I would argue they have no business being in the playoff if you can’t win at least one important game,” the SEC Network host said.

Why is Finebaum doubting Notre Dame?

Finebaum called the Irish’s home date with the Hurricanes “the marquee game of the week, which is saying a great deal,” but he admitted the case for leaving Notre Dame out has gotten murkier.

“And if they lose, I’ve already said it, and a lot of people have already said, that they’ll be left out, but that may be more difficult because of the absolute carnage,” Finebaum said.

That’s a softer stance than the one he took after the 28-24 loss at BYU on Oct. 17, when he called a potential Miami loss “monster news for everybody in college football.” Seven AP Top 25 teams lost on Halloween, which opens more doors for a 10-2 team.

Finebaum wasn’t impressed by Miami either. The Hurricanes moved to 8-0 by surviving North Carolina 38-35, recovering an onside kick in the final minute. He joked that ACC commissioner Jim Phillips had a request for Miami coach Mario Cristobal.

“It looks like Miami is just sleepwalking because it looks like Jim Phillips, the commissioner of the ACC, said to Cristobal, ‘We know you’re the best team, but please make the rest of our league look better by keeping these games close,’” Finebaum said.

Notre Dame’s shrinking playoff resume

“Notre Dame’s biggest win this year is Wisconsin,” host Matt Barrie said.

The Irish beat the Badgers 41-13 at Lambeau Field in Week 1, but No. 25 Wisconsin fell 30-0 at Iowa on Saturday for its fifth straight loss in the series.

SMU took a hit, too. The No. 19 Mustangs lost 30-27 at Syracuse when quarterback Steve Angeli found tight end Noah Meyers for a 2-yard touchdown with 17 seconds left. SMU (6-2) visits South Bend on Nov. 21, and that matchup lost much of its resume value.

“Now, if they finish 10-2, I ultimately believe they’re going to be in because of everything falling around them,” Barrie said. “But that’s one of the interesting test cases this season because we think Notre Dame is good. Do we know how good?”

The Irish also have a safety net they lacked last year. A memorandum of understanding with the College Football Playoff guarantees Notre Dame a spot if it’s ranked in the top 12 of the final rankings.

What happens if Miami wins?

Another loss to Miami would put the Irish in a familiar spot. Notre Dame finished 10-2 in 2025 and was the first team left out at No. 11 after Miami’s 27-24 head-to-head win helped the Hurricanes claim the final at-large bid.

Without a win over Cristobal’s team, Notre Dame’s best victories would come against Wisconsin and North Carolina teams that now have three and four losses.

Notre Dame coach Marcus Freeman’s team showed some cracks against Navy, trailing 13-7 late in the second quarter before pulling away. Freeman said he told his staff to stay the course at halftime.

“Don’t panic. That’s what outside noise and voices try to get you to do is panic,” Freeman said.

The committee releases its first College Football Playoff rankings Tuesday at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN, and Miami visits Notre Dame Stadium on Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC and Peacock.